Researcher Claudia Goldin analyzes why fertility rates in industrialized countries remain low despite economic growth, rising living standards, and the development of social institutions. Her work focuses not on economic incentives, but on the structural mismatch between the expansion of women's autonomy and the slow adaptation of male and institutional roles.
The basis of the analysis is the “matching problem” hypothesis. Goldin shows that the decline in fertility is not related to a rejection of family, but to a mismatch of expectations: the fewer men who are willing to share childcare and household responsibilities, the more rational it is for women to postpone having children or to forego motherhood altogether.
To test this idea, Goldin combines historical and macroeconomic data series for 12 countries—from the US and France to Japan and Korea—and applies cohort and comparative analysis using Total Fertility Rate, General Fertility Rate, and Cohort Fertility Rate indicators. She compares fertility trends with data on the distribution of domestic labor (OECD, Time Use Database) and models the impact of “traditional” and “modern” types of partnerships. In the model, the probability of having a child depends not only on income, but also on the chance that a woman will be able to combine motherhood with employment — a variable determined by the proportion of “modern men” in society.
The results show that fertility rates are directly linked to the gender gap in domestic workload. In countries with low TFRs (total fertility rates defined as average number of children born to one woman during her lifetime, where a rate below 2.1 indicates demographic decline), for example, in Japan (1.36) and Italy (1.27), women spend about three hours a day on household chores, while in Sweden and Denmark (where the TFR is closer to 1.7), they spend less than an hour. The smaller the gap, the higher the fertility rate. As women become more autonomous, this gap becomes a major factor in demographic decline: women adapt to new social conditions faster than institutions and men.
A comparison of two groups of countries confirms this trend. In the first group — the US, France, and the Nordic countries — the birth rate is declining moderately: the TFR remains within the range of 1.6–1.9, and the childlessness rate remains stable. In the second group—Italy, Spain, Korea, and Japan—the indicators are falling to the “lowest low” level (less than 1.5, in Korea—0.78), while the proportion of women without children is growing. According to the researcher, the gap is not so much related to the economy as to the pace of cultural change: in the latter group, women are adopting and reproducing new models of education and career faster than social institutions and perceptions of male roles are changing.
Goldin concludes that the “reverse side of fertility” is not a crisis of desire to have children, but a consequence of uncoordinated modernization. Women's autonomy is developing faster than the readiness of systems — labor, family, cultural — to support new forms of everyday equality. As a result, the decline in fertility becomes not an economic but a social problem, requiring a rethinking of the role of institutions in post-industrial society.